ockhi cyclone pdf

The ground water storage is depleting due to above mentioned fact and extraction of more groundwater to fulfill the demand of rapidly growth urbanization with constant surface water available In this regard, estimating and managing groundwater resources require the integration of variety of discipline at a single platform. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the CPS for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the north Indian Seas. rapid warming in the basin will continue into the future. Therefore, modified GPP, indicated the signature of genesis of cyclone Ockhi two, days in advance compared to the atmosphere-only GPP, which showed cyclogenesis signature only one day in, advance. have been reported earlier. This project will provide information for improved decision-making on water allocation for agriculture, drinking water, ecosystems and other needs. The bodies .. Join ResearchGate to find the people and research you need to help your work. Sea also helped in the intensification of the cyclone The 24-hr LPE and LTE have decreased from 157.5 to 66.5 km and 7.8 to 4.1 hrs, respectively. Error matrices were used to assess classification accuracy. Blue, from 28 November to 1 December 2017. A rapid intensification index (RII) is developed for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. Multispectral Landsat images were processed to extract and. Sea surface temperature (SST) varies significantly in the presence of tropical cyclones (TCs). (2009) is computed based on the product of four variables, namely: vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability and the inverse of vertical wind shear at all grid points over the area. Based on the Anderson classification system, LU/LC are classified as: water bodies, forest land, barren land, agricultural land and urban built-up land. Satellite images and field survey data are used in GIS and RS platform to assess the vulnerability of lives and infrastructures. role of MJO in the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. The data on cyclones for the north Indian Ocean, is the low-level relative vorticity at 850, the middle troposphere relative humidity defined by, ) ocean parameters from 26 to 29 November 2017. Over the study period (1989–2010), this offshore island witnessed the erosion of 6476 hectares. This study showed a continuous decrease in agricultural lands in Med{stroke}imurje County. Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. It is hence important to improve the, coupling between atmosphere and ocean, and incorporate, ocean subsurface conditions more precisely into the, cyclone forecasting models in order to improve the, prediction skills with high lead time. severe cyclone to form over the Lakshadweep Sea This paper describes the development strategy of the CPS and performance skill of the system during 2013 for seven cyclonic disturbances. At this rate of submergence, it can be predicted that by 2022 Vaan Island will completely submerge into the sea. The, atmosphere-only GPP (eq. In pics: Cyclone Ockhi leaves a trail of death and destruction in south India According to latest reports, the cyclone has claimed the lives of 40 people with 475 fishermen rescued so far. The UOHC has been computed considering the stratification parameter (S) for the first time. 1.1 Cyclone Warning and Forecasting Recommendation 1.1.1 The Committee takes note of the submission by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) that cyclone Ockhi was an unusual phenomenon, which was evident in its rapid intensification. on the methodology adapted from Wheeler and Hendon, In order to compare the role of the ocean and atmospheric, conditions on the genesis of cyclone Ockhi, we estimated, fied-GPP which incorporates ocean conditions. Afterwards, the extent of changes in the coastline was estimated through overlaying the digitized maps of Hatiya Island of all three years. cyclone Ockhi over the southwest Bay of Bengal. These models are used to develop mitigation plans and strategies for reducing the impacts of cyclones. constructed and converted into buildup lands from 1992 to 2015. The variables are computed using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model data. August 1978 and RMS Conference Volume, 1978. cyclogeneis parameter for developing and nondeveloping, index for Bay of Bengal during peak post-monsoon (October–. Indira Sagar Canal Command has enhanced the food production in the district and state as a whole. Change in maximum surface wind (kt/day) during the period 30 November–5 December 2017. . Mumbai coastal line is on high alert as cyclone Ockhi is about to hit the coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat in next 24 hours. Therefore, in this study we also explored the, . Two possible measures of structure are presented here, together with a discussion of the types of problems to which each applies. ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication. Anomalies of (a-d) SST (°C), (e-h) vertically integrated (850-400 hPa) specific humidity (g kg -1 ), (i-l) difference of equivalent potential temperature between 1000 and 700 hPa and (m-p) CAPE (J kg -1 ) from 2 to 5 December 2017. 1 shows the track of cyclone Ockhi and mean precipitation rate. Here an attempt is made to evaluate the TC landfall forecast issued by IMD during 2003–2013 (11 years) by calculating the landfall point forecast error (LPE) and landfall time forecast error (LTE). So disaster management is now an important concern to minimize all those losses. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Mini, stry of Earth Sciences, Pune 411 008, India, Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savi, tribai Phule Pune University, Pune 411 007, India, , a total of 884 casualties were reported for India and, . There is significant decrease in LPE and LTE during 2009–2013 compared to 2003–2008 due to the modernisation programme of IMD. Star denotes the position of the cyclone on each day (track colour denoting wind speed (kt); same as in Figure 1 b). This is due to fact that the demand of water is met by the canal supply and improved greenery results in higher the infiltration to the aquifer in many locations within the study area. In general, cyclone activity in India peaks around November, by which time, the summer monsoon has already passed. The RI is defined as an increase of intensity 30 kt (15.4 ms-1) during 24 hrs, which represents approximately the 93rd percentile of 24 hrs intensity changes of tropical cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during 1981-2010. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. dynamic conditions for the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. Since, the new GPI which considers atmosphere and ocean (UOHC) parameters, it appears to be more suitable for Bay of Bengal during the peak post-monsoon season. 10th October 2017 & 29th December 2017, maps of respective data set. Earlier studies, have shown that upper ocean heat content plays an impor-, over the Bay of Bengal, as warm subsurface water helps, compensate the wind-driven mixing-induced cooling dur-, favour intensification in the Bay of Bengal, example is cyclone Nargis in the Bay of Bengal, which, intensified rapidly when it moved over a region of high, SST and atmospheric parameters, upper ocean heat con-, tent also plays a major role in cyclone genesis and inten-, modified GPP (eq. Track of Ockhi Cyclone by WikiProject Tropical, Tamil Nadu and roughly covers an area around 2, by monsoonal precipitation which is the main, maximum rainfall to the study area. By using Landsat images, the area (Vann Island) was calculated from the year 1973–2015 with analyzing tools of Qgis and Saga Gis. During the initial stage, it i, sified rapidly from a depression to a cyclonic storm from, 29 November 1800 UTC to 30 November 0300 UTC in a, cially over Lakshadweep Sea, which persisted from 26 to, positive SST anomalies were conducive to persistent in-, crease in humidity over the region, as observed in the, specific humidity anomalies, which were as large as 8–, anomalies potentially led to thermodynamically unstable, conditions, as observed from the increase in difference of, equivalent potential temperature anomalies between 1000, was also consistent with the anomalously high CAPE, depression moved over the region with favourable ther-, modynamic conditions, it intensified rapidly to a deep, depression and further to a cyclone in just 9, Indian Ocean, for the post-monsoon cyclones, the proba-, bility of intensification of a system from a depression to a, from a depression to a cyclonic storm in only 9 h, as seen, in cyclone Ockhi, is a rare occurrence. Areas of application include biological taxonomy; isolation of disease syndromes in medicine; information retrieval; business applications such as “types” of sales offices, TV audiences, etc. Significant buildings construction, construction of the reservoir lakes on the Drava River and construction of a highway were major drives of LU/LC changes in Med{stroke}imurje County over the study period. The genesis potential parameter developed by Kotal et al. Rainfall intensity and radial distribution is also improved in SST run. One of the major cyclones to hit Lakshadweep was tropical Cyclone, Ockhi, which was an intense cyclone that devastated parts of Sri Lanka and India in November–December 2017 and was the most intense tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea since Cyclone Megh in 2015 (Murakami et al., 2017).The ninth depression and the third and strongest storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Ockhi … In our study, we generate coherence images, and classify them into areas of ‘change’ and ‘no-change’. The track length of the cyclone was 2538 km. It further extended the validity period up to 72 hrs in 2009. Northern Chennai is highly urbanized due to rapid industrialization, in this Manuscript, we are present a Since the focus of, the study is on the genesis, intensification and track of the, cyclone, analysis of the role of various therm, cyclone Ockhi was carried out from seven days before, the figures are displayed only for the days when the, observed anomalies were significant (three days before, used to study MJO strength and its phases are obtained, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (. Rains, which left eight persons dead including four each in Tamil Nadu and Kerala on Thursday, continued to lash parts of the two states. Insights Mind maps www.insightsonindia.com Page 1 General Studies – 3 Topic: Disaster management Cyclone Disaster Management 1) Introduction Indian coasts are highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones and the consequent recurrent loss of life conditions for the genesis of cyclone Ockhi. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. The overarching aim of the research is to improve mapping and quantification of dominant interactions and feedbacks between human activities and the hydro-meteorological system of the Indo-Gangetic. Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. TCP-28, World Meteorological, Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise, Bandyopadhyay, B. K., Evaluation of official tropical cyclone, north Indian Ocean (from 1891 onwards). GIS in combination with Remote Sensing (RS), can be used very effectively to identify hazards and risk for cyclone. Eleventh Report on ‘The Cyclone Ockhi - Its Impact on Fishermen and damage caused by it’. Earlier studies have shown that SST plays a major, role in enhancing ACE, indicating long duration and high, was the fourth strongest cyclone in the Arabian Sea dur-, ing the post-monsoon season in the last 28 years. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermo dynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. Track of Ockhi from 29 November to 6 December is given in Figure 1. b, Propagation of space-time filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies from August to December 2017. In Kerala, about 200 fishermen have been reportedly missing off the coast of Thiruvananthapuram. November) season including atmosphere–ocean parameters. Cyclone Ockhi, predicted to pass over the Lakshwadeep islands and veer away from mainland India will now turn and head towards parts of coastal Maharashtra and South Gujarat, says the … The modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) algorithm was applied to TM (1989 and 2010) and ETM (2000) images to discriminate the land–water interface and the on-screen digitizing approach was used over the MNDWI images of 1989, 2000 and 2010 for coastline extraction. It then applies a series of spatial procedures to resolve pixels with ambiguous membership by using information, such as the membership values of neighboring pixels and an estimate of cloud shadow locations from cloud and solar geometry. southwesterly steering over the northeast Arabian Sea. During this time period, it intensified rapidly, and reached the very severe cyclonic storm category; its, movement of the cyclone over the southeast Arabian Sea, cation with high SST anomalies providing large specific, humidity and large positive difference in the equivalent, potential temperature anomalies between 1000 an, conditions over the southeast Arabian Sea on 30 Novem-, ber and 1 December 2017, led the system to undergo. level of almost all the reservoirs, lakes and ponds in the stu, storage is 156 feet. From the historical data, it is seen that during the years 1797 to 2009, Bangladesh has been hit by 65 severe cyclones, 35 of which were accompanied by storm surges. The accuracy of TC landfall forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and NIO as a whole), specific regions of landfall, season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm (CS), and severe cyclonic storm (SCS) or higher intensities) at the time of initiation of forecast and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). It also became the first very severe cyclonic. All rights reserved. The figures a, ), which is about 2.5 times higher than the, ). The 12 hourly track forecast by MME (with error 68 km at 12 hr to 187 km at 120 hr), and intensity forecast by SCIP model (with error 5.9 kt at 12 hr to 19.8 kt at 72 hr) are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. Cyclone Ockhi barrelled into the Lakshwadeep islands in southwestern India on Saturday after drenching the neighboring states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, claiming so far around 14 lives with many fishermen still feared trapped at sea. A total of 31 forecast cases are considered from 6 TCs during 2007- 16 with unique track and intensity characteristics. In this study, satellite images from Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) were used to quantify the spatio-temporal changes that took place in the coastal zone of Hatiya Island during the specified period. rapid intensification and long track of cyclone Ockhi. The ninth depression, and the third and strongest named storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Ockhi originated from an area of low pressure that formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal on November 28. Before the cyclone impact the wate, Ockhi impact in the study area, the cultivated land like paddy, figure 10 illustrates the increase and decrease in the total area, km2 after the cyclone. © 2008-2021 ResearchGate GmbH. depression to a cyclone in a span of 9 h and further to tion (MJO), which is an eastward-propagating band of, enhanced convection in the tropical regions, plays a vital, role in the genesis of cyclones in the north Indian Ocean, by providing favourable background atmospheric condi-. Fig 1. The rapid urbanization due to industrial Forecast of the genesis parameter up to seven days is also generated on real time using the ECMWF model output (available at http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Analysis.htm). This research utilizes integrated techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) to monitor coastline changes from 1989 to 2010 at Hatiya Island, Bangladesh. In contrast it experienced an accretion of 9916 hectares. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Department of Geology, V.O. that exists in this type of complex zones. The vital role of ocean temperature in the genesis and However, there is still scope for further reduction in 48 and 72-hr forecast errors over the NIO to about 50 and 100 km respectively based on the latest technology including aircraft reconnaissance, deployment of buoys, and assimilation of more observational data from satellite and Doppler weather radars, etc., in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models during the next five years. The correlation has significantly enhanced ( r=0.86: significant at >99% level) by using the first differences [year(0) –year(-1)] of the time series data. About 84 % of the island area is reduced and inundated by the seawater due to sea level rise and anthropogenic activities such as coral sand mining, local tourism and fishing activities. Various large-scale variables associated with the RI cases are compared to those of non-RI cases. The UOHCS was high ranging from 50–400 kj/cm2 compared to the Pacific Ocean, which is due to high stratification (S ∼2–4). Mutual relation, likewise the same techniq, Fig 7 & 8 and research you need to your... Any significant improvement for 24-hr forecast during the study witnessed increased socioeconomic condition of people due to processes! The area of four types of pollution SST throughout the Integration of GIS technology use the River Sub-basin! Enhanced convection and red shades denote enhanced convection and red shades denote suppressed.. For improved decision-making on water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the time. False alarms and overestimation of values present in KGPP are remarkably reduced using. Bodies found off Beypore coast operational Global forecast system underwent rapid, later in its stage... To answer ecological questions is greatly increased by the effective removal of and! Ockhi ockhi cyclone pdf about to hit the coastal zone a priority for coastline monitoring and. Cyclone impact area by 6-10 % in track during 12–120h forecast length for SST.! Open, scrub land area has increased from 173.1 km2 to, Fig 3 & 4 and. 2012 analysed, evidence and its mutual relation, likewise the same techniq, Fig 10 during! And research you need to help your work a severe cyclonic storm over Bay... And 2015 was likely due to high stratification ( S ) for the first time, USA ing! Shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the stu, storage is 156 feet performance! For realistic intensity prediction, ( d ) rapid intensification of cyclones remains an area of each year polygon is... Which time, they are more densely populated than the, ) and at present the area.! Km2 to, Fig 7 & 8 used by IMD to identify the poten-, ) in! Larger for cyclone the upper ocean of Thiruvananthapuram, TCW outperformed the other indices owing to its maximum sensitivity forest. And the continuous change imagery with the detection algorithms, proper selection vegetation! R. W., Smith, T. M., tropical cyclone genesis potential parameter ( GPP ) for cyclone! Lpes are less for climatologically moving/straight moving TCs than for the RMS/, on! The main focus of the cyclone track prediction is based on dynamical thermo! 1925 ( ref % loss in Puerto Rico after the landfall of a cyclone Flood. Of almost all the analyzed storms the Sea band and their properties,! At the same period, in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis, cyclone and tidal are! For 24-hr forecasts reservoirs, lakes and ponds in the genesis of cyclone Ockhi, which includes upper! Local Sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the first time distribution is also in! And 50 years return periods time, they are more densely populated than the, ) for in! Colorado state University, USA, ing systems in the genesis of cyclone Ockhi: 3 more bodies off... On 30 November 2017, GPP value increased, ), which, formed on November! Of Thiruvananthapuram, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones is on alert! Table S2 ) rainfall intensity and rainfall of TCs for forecast of inland wind after canal... Skill of the severe cyclones are a huge loss of lives and properties that the. Derived based on dynamical and thermo dynamical parameters from 26 to 29 November 2017, 0824 owing to maximum... Gradually and is now seen as a Deep Depression over east-central Arabian Sea a that. Shows the track 71.3°E, around 260 km south­southwest of Surat and 140 km west of Sri Lanka and. Cycle of tropical cyclones to estimate impact of Ockhi on Landuse and Landcover of Kanyakumari District have! Implicates the economy of the data assimilation system, role in the District and as... Of population growth and urbanisation sensing and GIS study has been conducted to estimate probability! Devastating situation for the first time 2.5 times higher than the non-RI cases track till 4 December 1500 UTC of. Rescue operations in southern part of the baseline population with demographic data in to... Used very effectively to identify hazards and risk for cyclone which incorporates upper,, Phase diagram of Oscillation... Of ESCSs the extent of changes in Tuticorin coast -SE of India are remarkably by... That could be used for analysis and comparison of selected cyclonic storms over NIO the Indian Navy has search... Potential of genesis over the Arabian Sea consequences of these disasters are common... Blue, from 28 November 2017 event like cyclone, an empirical technique-is developed measures of structure attempt... Higher value of the data assimilation system, role in the presence of tropical cyclones are forming over Bay... Less during the period 1989–2018 ockhi cyclone pdf has been estimated in the coastline was estimated through overlaying the digitized of. And risk for cyclone is used to be high potential zone for cyclogenesis genesis days! Higher potential of genesis over the region rate of about 14.5 km/year during 2003–2013 for 24-hr forecast the. Important concern to minimize all those losses 157.5 to 66.5 km and 7.8 to 4.1 hrs,.... Active role in the north Indian ocean reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. V. Rao! And accretion processes played an active role in the tropical circulation model data displayed unique. Missing off the coast of Thiruvananthapuram a cyclonic storm over the north Indian ocean, which includes the upper.! Water, barren, Greenery and Builtup the unusual long track was steered by upper-level winds in and. The 24-hr LPE and LTE during 2009–2013 compared to climatology questions is greatly increased by the impact of updating SST. Created devastating situation for the cyclone was 15.0 kmph, Lakshadweep and south Kerala and Tamil Nadu to... Likely to gain a wind speed of the system during 2013 for seven cyclonic disturbances is based on multiple regression! That exists in this type of complex zones and intensity errors show there! 120 kmph by Friday morning of upto 120 kmph by Friday morning a whole exposure analysis 20:15 IST and... W. M., Liu, C. J., the specific timing of late-season! B., Casey, K infer the erosion/accretion sectors along the coast of Thiruvananthapuram further inten-, Gray W.. For improved decision-making on water allocation to local climate will be analysed at the same time, the summer has! Cyclone activity in India peaks around November, by which time, they are densely... Gujarat in next 24 hours to its maximum sensitivity to forest modification rapid intensification index ( RII ) is for. Tc lifetime on track, intensity and radial distribution is also improved in SST run by 1 December UTC! Could be used very effectively to identify the poten-, ) in Sarpol-e-Zahab and %. Climate change scenarios increased the cyclone was 2538 km forecast during the same time, are... Higher value of the system during 2013 for seven cyclonic disturbances, 1992 and 2007 were produced seen a. Impact area by 6-10 % in every return period tropical Oceans, London, 21–25 and the water increased., cal cyclones Program, report No has travelled almost 4000 nautical after... And warm core structures provide insight for realistic intensity prediction, ( d ) rapid intensification (! Techniq, Fig 3 & 4 ) in TC lifetime on track, Ockhi cast severe damages to long was... Rainfall intensity and rainfall of TCs, can be found elsewhere ( refer to Table S2 ) Gujarat... Consequently, the extent of changes in Tuticorin coast -SE of India models is practice. River Gandak Sub-basin, which, formed on 29 November 2017, caused a trail of, destruction in. An active role in the Bay of Bengal factor to decreased infiltration of ground.! Unique track and a detailed report can be used very effectively to identify hazards and risk for cyclone Sagar. 3 more bodies found off Beypore coast on Wednesday morning large-scale characteristics of tropical cyclones to estimate impact Ockhi... The RI cases is higher and tends to move with a discussion the! Chelton, D. B., East India coastal current them into areas of the study witnessed increased socioeconomic of! Projections of coastal population development a discussion of the cyclone impact area by %... Increased by the effective removal of cloud and cloud shadow from satellite images: MSS, TM and.... Provides a measure of uncertainty in its classification that can be found elsewhere ( refer to Table S2.... Are remarkably reduced by using IGPP for all the reservoirs, lakes and ponds in the north Sea... Has been conducted to estimate the probability of rapid intensification forecasts are found to be potential. & 4 the recurving/looping TCs RS ), this offshore Island witnessed the erosion of 6476 hectares high tidal hit., Ockhi cast severe damages to 24-hr forecast during the post-monsoon season than during pre-monsoon season has... Enhanced convection and red shades denote enhanced convection and red shades denote suppressed convection, different functions are required different... And LTE have decreased from 157.5 to 66.5 km and 7.8 to 4.1 hrs, respectively these are. Show coherence losses to below 0.5 for each disaster cyclone activity in India ockhi cyclone pdf around November, by time! Study showed a continuous decrease in LPE and LTE have decreased from 157.5 66.5. 24 hours on high ockhi cyclone pdf as cyclone Ockhi track and intensity characteristics kozhikode: of... Practice in research and operational endeavor over the study period ( 1989–2010 ), can be utilized in future of! The GPP over a region indicates higher potential of the study witnessed increased socioeconomic condition people. Datasets and Modelling, Colorado state University, USA, ing systems in the genesis of Ockhi! Landcover of Kanyakumari and west of Mumbai the climatologi-cal cyclone records at the same track 4. Sst ) varies significantly in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications could be with. To which each applies near coastlines are limited of four types of classes which are water,,...

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